This market forecasts whether the Lebanese government will announce a formal plan for Hezbollah's disarmament by September 2, 2025. President Joseph Aoun has emphasized the need for dialogue to achieve state control over all arms, while Hezbollah has shown resistance to disarmament without specific conditions being met. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if an official government announcement detailing a disarmament plan is made by the specified date; otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'. (reuters.com, reuters.com)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the Lebanese government officially announces a formal plan for Hezbollah's disarmament by September 2, 2025. The announcement must be made through official government channels, such as a press release, official statement, or government website. If no such announcement is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to 'No'.

Background

In recent months, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has called for Hezbollah and other political parties to hand over their weapons to the army, emphasizing that military power should reside exclusively with the state. (reuters.com) The United States has increased pressure on Lebanon to commit to disarming Hezbollah as a prerequisite for resuming discussions to end Israeli military operations in Lebanon. (reuters.com) Hezbollah's leadership has rejected these calls, asserting that their weapons are essential for Lebanon's defense and that disarmament would only be considered if Israel fully withdraws from Lebanese territory and ceases airstrikes. (reuters.com)

Considerations

The Lebanese government's ability to announce a disarmament plan may be influenced by ongoing negotiations with international stakeholders, internal political dynamics, and Hezbollah's stance on the issue. Additionally, the security situation in southern Lebanon and Israeli military actions could impact the timing and feasibility of such an announcement.