This market predicts whether Jerusalem will experience any measurable snowfall before the end of February 2025. Jerusalem typically experiences snow once every 3-4 years.
Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if any measurable snowfall is recorded by the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) or reported by major Israeli news outlets in Jerusalem before February 28, 2025. Market resolves NO if no snowfall is recorded.
References:
Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Snowfall Resolution Clarification:
Snow on the Ground: Snow must be on the ground over a large enough area (e.g. a lawn in a park).
Visible Thickness: The snowfall should be thick enough that a photograph of the area clearly appears white.
Subjectivity Note: While these criteria are subjective, the intent is that you will recognize measurable, accumulative snowfall when you see it.
Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Geographical Boundaries Clarification:
Pisgat Ze'ev is considered part of Jerusalem for the purposes of this market.
Mevaseret is not considered part of Jerusalem for the purposes of this market.
The boundaries are based on the area defined in the linked OSM relation.
1,000@DanielFox9fff Snow needs to be on the ground on a large enough area (e.g. lawn in the park), thickness should be such that it is possible to make a photo that looks white. I know it's all subjective, but you know it when you see it.
@VonGadke right, so any amount of snow so long as it's on the ground.
What counts as Jerusalem for the purposes of this market? Would Pisgat Ze'ev count? Mevaseret?
Pardon my quibbles, my deeply engrained penchant for pedantry is what really brings me to Manifold😉
@DanielFox9fff This area on OSM:
https://www.openstreetmap.org/relation/1381350#map=12/31.7962/35.1751
In other words - Pisgat Ze'ev yes, Mevaseret no.