Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the date of the first officially confirmed operational use of a Tomahawk cruise missile by Ukraine. Confirmation will require official statements from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, or the Ministry of Defense of a nation supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine (e.g., the U.S. Department of Defense). Credible reports from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian) citing official sources or providing unambiguous photographic or video evidence will also be considered for resolution.

If no such confirmed use occurs by December 31, 2030, the market will resolve as N/A.

Background

The Tomahawk is a long-range, all-weather, jet-powered, subsonic cruise missile primarily used for precision land-attack operations, capable of striking targets from ships, submarines, or ground launchers. Ukraine currently employs other long-range strike weapons, including Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles from the UK and France, respectively, and ATACMS ballistic missiles from the United States.

Recent discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have addressed the potential transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Reports indicate that the U.S. may consider supplying a limited number of these missiles, potentially between 20 and 50 units. A new ground-launched system for Tomahawks, the Extreme Multi-Mission Autonomous Vehicle (X-MAV), was recently showcased, indicating a potential deployment method if the missiles are supplied.

Considerations

The potential supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine has drawn "extreme concern" from Russia, with warnings of escalation and hints of potential retaliatory measures, including strengthening air defense systems. Some Russian officials have suggested a nuclear response is possible if Ukraine uses such long-range rockets against targets inside Russia. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has stated that if supplied, Tomahawk missiles would be used exclusively against military targets within Russia, avoiding civilian sites. Russian statements have also suggested that the use of Tomahawks would necessitate the direct involvement of American specialists. The United States maintains a substantial inventory of Tomahawk missiles (approximately 4,150), though reports suggest a potential depletion of this stockpile due to recent expenditures and production rates.

• Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Ukraine is confirmed to have used Tomahawk missiles at an earlier date than initially reported, the market will resolve to the earliest confirmed use date, not N/A.