VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
closes Dec 31
Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023
70%
chance

There have been rumors about Apple releasing an AR headset for years. Will 2023 be the year it finally comes out?

https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks

Resolution criteria:

Must actually be available for purchase sometime in 2023.

Jan 18, 8:13pm: Will Apple release an AR headset in 2023 → Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023

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Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ320 of YES

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/apple-postpones-ar-glasses-plans-cheaper-mixed-reality-headset

Apple Inc. is still planning to unveil its first mixed-reality headset this year, but an even more important follow-up product — lightweight augmented-reality glasses — has been postponed due to technical challenges. 

This should resolve YES still - per the market creator, the mixed-reality headset will count as an AR headset.

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandais predicting NO at 78%

@Gabrielle I'm not going to resolve until the thing is actually out, but yes if this news article is correct this will probably resolve YES

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielleis predicting YES at 80%

@VivaLaPanda Yeah, sorry for the confusing phrasing - I just meant that the article saying that it’s postponing “lightweight augmented-reality glasses” wouldn’t affect the outcome of this market as long as the “mixed-reality headset” still comes out, since other people had clearly reacted to the article thinking that it would impact this market.

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda

@Gabrielle updated the market title to reflect my comments in the thread

Kronopath avatar
Kronopath

My own variant of this market I made a while ago, with clearer resolution criteria as to what counts as “AR” (though it’s about announcement rather than release):

wilsonkime avatar
Wilson Kime

If this will count a VR headset with mixed reality features, meaning no direct light passes through, just a passthrough camera feed, then yes this has a solid chance of happening. But typically I wouldn't count that as an "AR headset" which usually means light passes directly through glass with an overlay.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielleis predicting YES at 70%

@wilsonkime the market creator clarified in an earlier comment that a mixed reality headset would also work for this, which is what I'm personally expecting. I don't think Apple would go with something like the HoloLens

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-01-08/when-will-apple-launch-the-reality-pro-mixed-reality-headset-apple-2023-devices-lcnfzkc7

With the current plan, Apple could introduce the device to consumers — likely under the name Reality Pro — and then get developers up to speed on its software features in June. On this timeline, the company would then ship the product later in the fall of 2023. 

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 42%

Is the Rayban Stories an AR glasses?

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandais predicting NO at 43%

@MP no at least if I'm reading the product page correctly: https://www.ray-ban.com/usa/discover-ray-ban-stories/clp

Must have some visual overlay component for me to count it

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 30%

@VivaLaPanda This market then is a walk in the park. We're no way near that technology.

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandais predicting NO at 24%
Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielleis predicting YES at 70%

@MP Microsoft's HoloLens is already this. I used it about six years ago and it was pretty impressive then, and we've had a lot of graphics card innovation since then. I don't think Apple would release the HoloLens as it was six years ago, but it's totally plausible for something like that now.

ersatz avatar
ersatzis predicting YES at 41%

WWDC 23 I suspect.

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandais predicting NO at 43%

@ersatz there have been rumors every year for the past 5 years (including internally at Apple)

I do think it's probably Soon™, but if I was Apple I'd be worried about doing a big speculative consumer tech release during a likely recession.

ersatz avatar
ersatzis predicting YES at 44%

@VivaLaPanda It's not consumer tech! It's targeting the pro-market.

zQ4Z82W avatar
zQ4Z82W

Are you distinguishing the rumored MR (AR/VR) headset from the rumored AR-focused Apple Glasses? Or do both of those count as an AR headset for resolution purposes?

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandais predicting NO at 46%

@zQ4Z82W both count

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandais predicting NO at 43%

For the record, my no bet is because this has been delayed for years, and consumer spending will probably be bodied in 2023 by a recession, so it makes sense to delay sales until 2024