Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023
resolved Jan 1

There have been rumors about Apple releasing an AR headset for years. Will 2023 be the year it finally comes out?


Resolution criteria:

Must actually be available for purchase sometime in 2023.

Jan 18, 8:13pm: Will Apple release an AR headset in 2023 → Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023

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📢Resolves No
Apple Vision Pro if it were to qualify is not set for release until 2024.

predicted NO

Looking to sell if anyone wants to place a limit order

predicted NO

@JakeFromHackmud I would plave one, but most of my Mana are already here.

If anyone wants to place a Big Limit order I would also sell mine.

predicted NO

@Svenbonne same, but not selling. those are the limits I can afford for now, wish I could do better

predicted NO

arb with same author

/VivaLaPanda/will-apple-release-an-ar-headset-in-3e6edc3adf0c 102% happens before 2025?

arb with different author

/StrayClimb/will-apple-vision-pro-release-in-20 103% by 2025!

Quite impressive I lost 1300 here and I was right, Kudos all. Btw, some related markets.


predicted YES

Available doesn't mean not purchasable. I would say a preorder counts.

predicted NO


Available doesn't mean not purchasable.

uhm, it does not, it means purchasable. 🤔

Description states “available for purchase”

so purchaseble.

predicted YES

@deagol I wanted to say "doesn't necessarily mean not purchasable", I didn't read the page you're quoting :)

bought Ṁ473 of NO


wanted to say "doesn't necessarily mean not purchasable"

I must be missing something obvious, but it doesn’t ever mean “not purchasable”, but the opposite.

predicted YES

@deagol sorry, was late yesterday 😂

What I meant was that "available for purchase doesn't necessarily mean being able to physically get it, so as long as orders start in 2023 it should still count."

However your article clearly states orders will start next year so...

predicted NO

@NikitaBrancatisano ah now I get it, there was an extra “not” in the phrase I think. yeah I’m pretty sure there wouldn’t be preorders this year. In Apple’s parlance “early next year” means Jan-April so most likely late April. ;)

bought Ṁ291 of NO
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@MattMay "The headset is also reportedly uncomfortable and would lack a standout app upon release" this doesn't seem to me like something Apple would want to release.

Beyond that, Apple either needs a proper developer ecosystem or to "let AI do everything" for this device to be a success. Robert Scoble seems to be hinting a lot at the latter, and there are articles indicating they have prompt-based XR app development.

Also, I personally don't think Apple belongs in XR, and would prefer Samsung or some other new entrant to instead "win" the next era of non-gaming consumer electronic devices.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Outside view: An Apple headset has been reported to be coming Real Soon Now since I started working in VR in 2016.

predicted YES

@VivaLaPanda If Apple releases an initial "limited release" or "Developer edition" that theoretically can be bought be anyone but is intended only for software developers creating apps for it, would that resolve as YES? What about if you have to be a member of Apple's Developer program?

predicted NO

Against all news reports, I am actually trusting my gut here and betting NO.

We have seen tech companies have found VR headsets are more difficult than anticipated to sell to the general public who aren't "hardcore gamers" for lack of a better term, and Meta has experienced this first hand.

With AR, the only real usage is in industrial applications, and its not difficult to see why.

The two categories are the headsets and the glasses and they both have significant downsides.

  • Headsets (eg hololens) are very expensive > 2000$, they can provide full screen high quality AR, but are bulky and unlikely to be worn when you are out and about. Mainly used for training, visualisation, modelling apps.

  • Glasses: basically a small HUD in small section of your view. Used for situations where you need notifications or monitoring when you are occupied in a physical task. Cheaper than headsets but still a premium product > 500$. More suitable for out and about wear, but still very rare (I paid £4000 for laser eye surgery to get rid of glasses, they are a pain!).

Does it make sense for Apple to launch either of these?

Apple's enterprise offerings are mainly:

  • Mac Pro

  • Enterprise management for iPhone macbook etc

These are both high margin products which benefit from the existing apple consumer ecosystem, and AR doesn't fit into that.

But what about the Hololens? Well:

  • It looks like it Hololens development is discontinued from news reports

  • Microsoft has better industry connections to sell to enterprise customers

  • Microsoft has Kinect experience which helped accelerate R&D

  • Microsoft does not have the same design expectations as Apple, their products don't have to be as sleek, intuitive or integrated

  • The metaverse mania which fueled VR/AR has died down

This is my personal opinion but don't you think that a headset is not very Apple?

They are bulky and complicated, and I don't think the technology is there for there to be an iPhone moment where everything is radically simplified. Glasses are more elegant and Apple like, but getting a high quality AR experience is even more technically challenging. Tim Cook clearly likes the concept, but I'm not sure this can translate into reality.

I reckon this was vaguely planned at the peak metaverse hype period, and R&D difficulties and business analysis cancelled this.

predicted NO

@JemBishop My magic 8 ball agrees

predicted NO

@JemBishop with regards to VR we also have the issue that apple is weaker on gaming. As they don't have a first party game studio, if they want to launch this year, they must have had information and devkits going to third party game studios, isn't it weird none of them leaked it?

predicted YES

@JemBishop I agree with almost everything you said. The thing I differ with is “what’s next” for Apple? Phone, tablets, computer, watches… They are already leaders on all of these. It would make sense for them to create a new market and hit hard with this MR device… I agree that’s just speculation though.

Also, there are a lot of rumors and it would be very strange if it was all Fake. Something is coming…

bought Ṁ100 of NO

This bagholder here is now putting good money behind bad money.

Bloomberg reports that Cupertino is postponing to June. One can hope they continue to postpone it


Says they’re waiting to unveil it at WWDC. I expect the announcement to come this year.