Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030
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A bunch of companies, most notably Mojo, are trying to build and sell AR contact lenses.

Will these devices succeed?

Resolution criteria:

The device has to be purchasable by any consumer in the US, though if there's a wait-list this still resolved YES. The device must be "useful". This will be based on my judgment, but for an example of some disqualifying things: <10m battery life, so low res it can only display a clock, etc

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predicts YES

This is an easy no. This technology is physically impossible. There is no way to put a display in focus if it’s that close to the cornea.

predicts NO

@ToddFoster plenty of no shares left to buy 😉

predicts NO

@VivaLaPanda but also there are a bunch of theoretically possible approaches to the focus issue in the literature: https://opg.optica.org/oe/fulltext.cfm?uri=oe-29-7-10568&id=449380

Issue is whether you could actually make them at a reasonable cost/power consumption/scale/etc

predicts NO

@VivaLaPanda Thanks for the paper. I might have exaggerated on the physically impossible. But extremely improbable to have a holographic display that thin while being battery powered. I think the odds of brain implants are higher.

Mojo announces that they are quitting smart contact lenses and will let go of 75% of its workers

https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/7/23543224/mojo-vision-smart-contact-lens-microled

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