Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will another RSA challenge number be factored in 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ230
resolved Sep 20
Resolved
YES

Resolution criteria

Resolves to YES if the factorization of any unfactored RSA challenge number as of September 14, 2026 is made public on or before December 31, 2026 (UTC). Eligible numbers are those announced as part of the RSA Factoring Challenge in 1991, or as part of the expansion in 2001.

Technology
Math
Cryptography
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ99
Sort by:
bought Ṁ230 YES

Resolves YES: Steve Weis (@sweis) on X https://saweis.net/posts/rsa-896.html

RSA-896
A post about RSA-896.

People are also trading

Will a second Mersenne number above 2^1500 be fully factored in 2026?
57% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
10% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
39% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2075?
81% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
67% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
54% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
61% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2100?
88% chance
In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
2043
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
22% chance