Will another RSA challenge number be factored in 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

Resolves to YES if the factorization of any unfactored RSA challenge number as of September 14, 2026 is made public on or before December 31, 2026 (UTC). Eligible numbers are those announced as part of the RSA Factoring Challenge in 1991, or as part of the expansion in 2001.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (0 traders, as of Sep 15, 2026).

Resolution criteria

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