Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a Tesla robot physically walks on the lunar surface at any point during 2028. Resolution requires:

• Confirmation from NASA, SpaceX, or Tesla official sources that a Tesla robot unit was transported to the Moon

• Video or photographic evidence showing the robot walking (not rolling, being carried, or stationary) on the lunar surface

• The walking must occur during calendar year 2028

The market resolves NO if no robot walks on the Moon by December 31, 2028.

Background

Tesla's robot is a general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. As of 2026, Tesla robots are in pilot production and deployed only at Tesla facilities, with commercial sales to businesses potentially beginning in 2027 and consumer availability in 2028 or later. As of March 2026, Artemis IV (lunar landing) is scheduled for early 2028. NASA expects Starship to take off for the Moon's South Pole in 2028, with the ultimate goal of establishing a permanently crewed science station there.

Considerations

No Tesla robot has been announced for any lunar mission. While Musk has made aspirational statements about Robot's eventually operating on other planets, there is no public commitment from Tesla, NASA, or SpaceX to include an Robot unit on 2028 lunar missions. The Artemis IV mission is designed to land human astronauts, not robots, and would require significant additional engineering to adapt Robots for the lunar environment (radiation shielding, thermal regulation, power systems for the vacuum).

This description was generated by AI.