Will Paul Christiano consider ELK unsolvable by the end of 2024?
18
113
แน816แน370
Dec 31
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Market will resolve YES if Paul Christiano publicly announces that he considers ELK to be unsolvable (e.g. in a forum post) on or before 31/12/2024 23:59 PST, resolves NO otherwise.
Get แน200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Destiny have another in-depth discussion before the end of 2024?
36% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast by the end of 2024?
22% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get an op-ed in the NY Times or Washington Post by the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?
71% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Ezra Klein Show podcast by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027
35% chance
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
49% chance
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
22% chance
Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?
66% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?
46% chance