How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?
13
12k
Jul 1
2%
[0,10]
2%
(10,20]
54%
(20,30]
21%
(30,40]
13%
(40,50]
10%
(50,60]
10%
(60,70]
9%
(70,80]
8%
(80,90]
8%
(90,100]
7%
100+

Abhayesian recently posted a lesswrong post explaining our paper, how many total votes will it get before July (using votes instead of karma to avoid incentivicing low number holders to down-vote).
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EBbcuSuNafkYpsgTW/finding-backward-chaining-circuits-in-transformers-trained-1

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It's already at 11 and imo is unlikely it goes down much. So someone should definitely buy [0,10] down.

@VictorLevoso It would probably be fine for me to buy it myself since this market doesn't require my subjective opinion to resolve but I think I'll let other people do it.

@VictorLevoso I think this was meant to be a dependent multichoice market (answers sum to 1)? You can’t change that on this market directly but you can duplicate it, change that, and N/A this one if you want to

@Bayesian Yeah you are right, I realized just after clicking the create market button.
Don't I lose the mana that way thou? I'm not sure I have enough rn to make the market again.
I mean technically I can resolve all as no except the correct one its just slightly more annoying to use.

@VictorLevoso I would have made it a numeric market maybe but that's much more expensive.

@VictorLevoso n/A gives you back the mana. Idk if regular users still can N/A though. I can do it. Yeah independent MC still works to be clear, just doesn’t have the automatic market maker arb across options

@Bayesian Seems N/A doesn't work anymore.
So I guess its going to have to be people's job to keep the probabilities of the market consistent.

@VictorLevoso mods can N/A, regular users can't, bc otherwise there are schemes that let you print money using N/A. that works.

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