Will "The Median Researcher Problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Basic
2
Ṁ172026
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post The Median Researcher Problem is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will "2024 Unofficial LessWrong Census/Survey" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "Against LLM Reductionism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
21% chance
Will "The Base Rate Times, news through prediction ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
20% chance
Will "How bad a future do ML researchers expect?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
10% chance
Will "How much do you believe your results?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
90% chance
Will "What I would do if I wasn’t at ARC Evals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "The self-unalignment problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Reproducing ARC Evals' recent report on langu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
10% chance
Will "If interpretability research goes well, it ma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Thoughts on the impact of RLHF research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
14% chance