Will my net worth be at least Ṁ100,000 by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Resolves YES if my net worth is worth 100,000 mana or more by the end of 2023; resolves NO otherwise.

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predicted YES

So basically what happened was that my friend who had around 60k mana in an inactive account decided to gift his remaining mana to me before leaving the site; I had not purchased any mana and abided by all of the rules I've laid out so far. I understand that this may not be a satisfactory ending but tbh so many pieces of evidence already hinted at this (my answers to questions in the comments, me consistently buying YES shares, etc.).

predicted NO

@VictorLJZ It's not super relevant, but I'm curious: how did your friend's account get 60k mana?

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn it was an old account where he used to be active a lot, and earned like 60k mana through gambling on whale markets lol

predicted NO

@VictorLJZ that does not match the balance / profit graphs, and it looks as if that account was sent or bought a large amount of mana. But it's not important.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn Only the one payment and no receipts shown, so it doesn't look like it was sent to Yix_ as a managram. Bought and sent in same minute so doesn't appear in graph? or a graph bug? or something else? probably not important as you say.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn the account was created for an old whale market specifically (before those got kinda shadow-banned). The abruptness of it was due to the nature of the market itself (the famous whale vs minnows market) and no money was spent purchasing mana by either me or my friend who owned that account.

predicted NO

@VictorLJZ but Yix_ is listed as having made only 1.1k mana profit on WvM, and only little profit overall... that's why I was confused.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn Not sure if I made mistake before, but net worth graph does show a near constant 66k since May 2023. Not sure how manalink sent mana in May 2023 would show up other than just in net worth graph..

bought Ṁ150 of YES

Net worth


Will my net worth be at least Ṁ100,000 by the end of 2023?Victor Li

98%-10 2h 12/31 Ṁ34,303

so over 100000 excluding this question.

bought Ṁ679 of YES

"By" is at any time right?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

convenient and suspicious mana transfer just now... 🤔

predicted NO

What Timezone are you resolving this?

predicted YES

@esusatyo am currently in SF so PST

predicted YES


bought Ṁ100 YES from 66% to 69%
bought Ṁ100 of NO

I'm definitely getting swindled here but we gamble in this house

predicted YES

@aquapuppa now that's the fucking spirit

bought Ṁ105 of YES

i believe

bought Ṁ100 YES from 76% to 78%
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Is this only through natural growth, or does buying mana or receiving gifts/loans also count?

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn from comment below

but mana transfers from other players do count if i receive them

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn i made a commitment to never spend real money on this site but gifts are more than welcome lol

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@VictorLJZ are you interested in a loan of 26k mana, at 0.001% interest, for 1 day?

predicted YES

@firstuserhere nah bro i think i got this

predicted NO

@firstuserhere FYI they have to spend it on something - this question is about portfolio value, not net worth.

sold Ṁ452 of YES

@chrisjbillington could spend it on this market

sold Ṁ95 of NO

@firstuserhere Nope, they said they'd exclude this market

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington nope, even if it all remains in my balance it still counts as portfolio value, since it's covered under the portfolios tab on manifold

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington and yes i exclude all mana i hold in this current market

@VictorLJZ happy for you to clarify that that's what you were going for, but you'd better change the title to say "net worth" then, because "portfolio value" specifically means something else.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington by portfolio u include all ur investments and the balance u have in cash, i think it's pretty clear given all of these things are displayed in the portfolios tab

sold Ṁ74 of YES

@chrisjbillington i think when the market was created, there was no net worth section, just portfolio, thats why the current title

predicted YES

@firstuserhere yea this ^

@VictorLJZ That's fair enough, but now that's called "net worth", whereas portfolio value means the value of your bets, minus loans owed. So would be good to re-title the market accordingly.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington fair enough

@VictorLJZ So you said you'd accept gifts, but you just turned down a loan. Are you intending to turn down all loans until the end of the year? I can think of a lot of other ways to manipulate this market but loans are the easiest.

@VictorLJZ Actually, upon further investigation, "portfolio value" is indeed used by Manifold (in their codebase, anyway) as a synonym for "net worth". So I was wrong, about that, apologies. "Investment value" is what I was thinking of. Nonetheless clearer with the title change I think, but my bad!

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