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This question has resolved.

Participating in the market when it’s above 25% is a bad bet, yea? Of the two types of bets and two possible outcomes, 3/4 will not win.

Bet Yes, Resolves: ✅

Bet Yes, Never resolves: ❎

Bet No, Resolves: ❎

Bet No, Never resolves: ❎

Only money to be made by a No position is to get other people to buy No positions and then sell early.

@AaronBreckenridge It depends in what you think about Vespie’s goals. Maybe they are trying to make a point that the words on the page are just words: one can resolve the market to “no”, the world will not collapse due to logical inconsistency, the algorithm will still award the mana to those betting “no”, proving your third line incorrect.

@MaksimM 😉

I hope it does.