I'm going to set up a dummy account that does the opposite of Yes holders in the LK-99 market. Will this be profitable?
6
46
170
Jul 10
52%
chance

The method is as follows:

  1. I birth @Verysillyposter

  2. I roll a d20 to select one of the twenty largest Yes holders in this market:

    Since many of the largest holders in this market only have one position, I'm going to go through systematically instead. I will still select the position via a d20 though.

  3. I roll a d20 and randomly select one of that user's top twenty positions by value

  4. I bet 25 mana against their position (or as much as what is needed to net at least 1 mana in profit with a successful resolution)

  5. Rince and repeat until I've spent my initial 500 mana

    Since there is only 100 starting mana now, I will do this daily until with daily bonuses I have spent 500 mana. I will throw money at each position until I have put 25 in, then will move on to the next position

  6. After three months* I see if I've turned a profit

    *from the time I finish spending 500 mana

  7. If I have netted a profit (not counting bonuses), this market resolves as Yes. Otherwise, this market resolves as No.

This is part of a series of informal experiments on whether it's a good strategy to do the opposite of low-perforners and the same as high-performers. Given the upper ranks of the leaderboard are nearly unanimous in betting No against LK-99 replication, I figured Yes voters for this market would be a good target for this experiment.

While in my markets on the performance of upper-rank players do mention users by name, I will not be mentioning which users I select in this market given my goal is not to harass/target anyone. I've found myself spending more time on Manifold recently largely because it's a friendlier place than many other corners of the internet, and so I ask everyone here continue extending that courtesy (no matter how much you doubt the 4% odds of LK-99 replicating). I recommend approaching this market with curiosity, as differing viewpoints are a great opportunity to build understanding. Even if you think that LK-99 optimism is fueled by hopium, we are all subject to optimism bias (I for one lost mana betting that Biden might get primaries), and learning to better recognize it is valuable.

In light of recent events, I would like to say I will be keeping a moat between the two accounts, and will not be using this alt to send myself any mana, collect a new user referral bonus, or trade on my own markets, etc. At the conclusion of this market, I will either find a new experiment to use whatever mana remains, or will donate it.

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Made a few edits to my criteria, mainly that it will take a bit longer for me to spend 500 mana and that I will be choosing users systematically. In addition, I will not bet on any markets yielding <5% return. I'll update the resolution date once I've spent the mana. Otherwise though, feel free to peruse the portfolio.

https://manifold.markets/VerySillyPoster

I completely forgot about this market, and so will be moving the resolution date. I should be able to get the account set up this week, hopefully today or tomorrow. Thank you for your patience.

There is a surprising portion of markets here with really far out resolution dates and so many of the markets you bet won’t resolve in 3 months unless you filter some of that out.