Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between June 26, 2026, and July 3, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater is officially cataloged with its epicenter located within Japan’s land territory, its territorial waters, or its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

If no such earthquake meets these criteria within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to NO.

The following sources will be used for verification:

• Primary Source: USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Catalog

• Secondary Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Earthquake Information

Additional Rules:

• Conflicting Data: If there is a discrepancy in the recorded magnitude between the USGS and JMA, the market will resolve to YES if either agency officially catalogs the event at a magnitude of 7.0 or higher.

• Revision Window: Any official revisions to the magnitude or epicenter made by either agency within 48 hours of the market's closing time (by July 5, 2026, at 23:59 UTC) will be considered. Revisions made after this 48-hour window will not be taken into account.

Background

On June 25, 2026, a powerful offshore earthquake struck off the coast of Iwate Prefecture in northern Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the tremor's magnitude from an initial 6.9 to 7.2, while the USGS recorded the event at a magnitude of 6.9. The earthquake disrupted transit and caused minor injuries but triggered no tsunami. It was followed on June 26, 2026, by a magnitude 5.6 earthquake centered in Japan's Yamanashi Prefecture near the Fuji Five Lakes area. This market tracks whether another major seismic event of magnitude 7.0 or greater will occur in the region over the subsequent week.

This description was generated by AI.