Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Vincent Keymer is ranked in the top 3 of the FIDE classical world rankings by the end of March 2026. Resolution will be determined by the official FIDE rating list published in March 2026, accessible at https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml. The market resolves NO if Keymer is ranked 4th or lower on that date.

Background

Keymer gained 18 points across the 2025 European Team Chess Championship and 2025 European Club Cup to break into the top five for the first time in his career on the November 2025 FIDE rating list, reaching a career-best 2773 and world number four. Keymer is a German chess grandmaster born November 15, 2004. His recent trajectory has been steep—his dominant performance at the Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters brought him 21 rating points and secured his first-ever place in the world top 10 in September 2025.

Considerations

Reaching top 3 from his current position at #4 requires displacing one of the three players ahead of him. The stars of the slightly older generation, Magnus Carlsen, Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana, still hold their places at the top of the world rankings, even with a considerable lead. Rating changes depend heavily on tournament performance over the next four months, and Keymer's continued participation in high-level classical events will be critical.