I will use @FairlyRandom to get our results. 1 = Heads, 2 = Tails. Market resolves YES for heads, NO for tails. If you bet and comment, I'll send you 10 mana. Only for the first three. Api trades don't count.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (8 traders, as of Mar 17, 2026).

Daily Coin Flip - Day 264

@GnosticGirl https://manifold.markets/4fa/do-you-like-76-odds?r=VmVsYXJpcw

The funnest are the insider trader ones but I'm hesitant to sink 500 mana into one. Btw I've taken to writing random messages on the managrams because it's more interesting, pay it no mind.

Do you like 76% odds?

76% chance. I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100. If the number is between 1 and 76, this market resolves to YES; otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will also record betting behavior for this and related markets with varying odds and analyze the data statistically to look for patterns in participants’ decisions.

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