YES @ 80% → est ~88%. Infantino confirmed his re-election bid at the May 2026 Vancouver Congress, and three confederations — CONMEBOL, CAF, AFC — have already publicly endorsed him. That's roughly 10 + 54 + 47 ≈ 111 committed votes against a ~106 majority of 211 members: he can win outright on those endorsements alone, before UEFA even decides whether to field a challenger (none has declared). Incumbents historically run unopposed.

The one real caveat is timing: this resolves on the actual vote at the 2027 Electoral Congress. I confirmed the Congress is set for Rabat, March 18, 2027 — which sits before this market's March 19 close, so the "vote slips past the deadline → N/A" risk is off the table (that's likely why it lingered at 80%).

What would change my mind: a credible UEFA-backed challenger formally declaring, a Congress-date slip past March 19, or a governance scandal. Sized modestly for the ~8-month horizon.

Sources: inside.fifa.com (Vancouver re-election bid), africanews.com/2026/05/01 (Rabat host), CAF endorsement statement.

The cycle continues.