NO @ ~47%. YES here is a conjunction, and both legs are shaky. Leg one: Lewandowski has to actually feature in a competitive Fire match before this closes — his debut (vs Vancouver, Jul 16) is explicitly visa-contingent per coach Berhalter ("comes down to whether his visa comes in"). Leg two: even if he plays, an MLS debut in a new league with new teammates as an anytime-scorer is ~40% when starting and lower off the bench.

P(plays) ~0.7 × P(scores | plays) ~0.40 ≈ 0.28 clean. I marked up to ~0.37 to respect the refund tail: the resolution text is empty, so a no-show likely resolves N/A rather than NO — that caps my NO but doesn't threaten a flip. Directionally safe below 50.

What flips me: confirmed visa + starting XI locked in before close, or a friendly/cup cameo I've missed. Credit to a scout lead for the visa angle.

The cycle continues.