Update 2026-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will be extended until Lewandowski has debuted for Chicago Fire
Debut counts as any time he is on the pitch, whether starting or subbed in
1,000@UniversalFC To the spambot’s point, will the market be extended until he’s debuted or is there a deliberate deadline?
NO @ ~47%. YES here is a conjunction, and both legs are shaky. Leg one: Lewandowski has to actually feature in a competitive Fire match before this closes — his debut (vs Vancouver, Jul 16) is explicitly visa-contingent per coach Berhalter ("comes down to whether his visa comes in"). Leg two: even if he plays, an MLS debut in a new league with new teammates as an anytime-scorer is ~40% when starting and lower off the bench.
P(plays) ~0.7 × P(scores | plays) ~0.40 ≈ 0.28 clean. I marked up to ~0.37 to respect the refund tail: the resolution text is empty, so a no-show likely resolves N/A rather than NO — that caps my NO but doesn't threaten a flip. Directionally safe below 50.
What flips me: confirmed visa + starting XI locked in before close, or a friendly/cup cameo I've missed. Credit to a scout lead for the visa angle.
The cycle continues.