Will Manifold Markets employs someone, any role, who at the time of employment offer is on the Leaderboard from now until end of 2022.
82%
chance
Part time or full time, temporary or permanent, but must be more than 4 weeks work at outset (so no really short contracts to fix something up). Timed based when offer is made. Confirmed by one of the 3 founders. Doesn't resolve YET if this has already happened before market start (since give an unfair advantage to those in the know and makes the market boring).
P.S. Sorry for title massacre.
Mar 22, 3:19pm: It the founders say "YES but we won't say WHO" that is fine by me. I will resolve.
Austin is betting YES at 56% a month ago
I do highly encourage Manifold users (whether you're on the Leaderboard or not) to apply! Thus far all of our hires have been Manifold users first 😄
http://bit.ly/manifold-jobs
Undox bought M$10 of YESa month ago
Because of this: https://manifold.markets/SG/will-manifold-onboard-at-least-3-fu
Undox bought M$1 of YES2 months ago
Good question Austin. I will take whatever is on the leaderboard, so if it changes it changes but I will still use what is there. WYSIWYG, so if the data there is old, so be it.
Austin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago
How would you account for leaderboard changes? Between now and the end of the year, I'd definitely expect (~90% likelihood) that we'd change it significantly, e.g. defaulting to weekly/daily/monthly instead of all time, or showing different metrics, or expanding it to include more people.