Given ">2000 USD be donated through Manifold for Good before June" will at least 50% of the donations be made in the last 48 hours of May (San Francisco Time)
Basic
6
Ṁ330resolved Jun 3
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves N/A if ">2000 USD be donated through Manifold for Good before June" is false.
Otherwise resolves YES if at least 50% of the donations be made in the last 48 hours of May (San Francisco Time)
Otherwise NO
This is a market to test my suspicion that MM is going to donate 2k at the last minute, and there is insider trading on https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-2000-usd-be-donated-through-ma
May 28, 3:57pm: Almost a given now, unless a super-insider chucks a few grand right now on, while betting heavily on no here to extract the M$323 from the pot.
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1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00