Update following booking details: His height was reported as 6'2" or more but he was not measured (according to NY times), so the YES and NO resolution criteria were both met. I didn't consider the possibility that he would be allowed to self-report his height. If a measured height (rather than a self-reported height) isn't released, this will resolve N/A. Sorry everyone!
Original question:
Donald Trump's height has previously been reported as 6'3" or 6'2".
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/MichaeldelaMaza/will-donald-trump-weigh-280-pounds
Similar resolution criteria:
Resolves to YES if at least two media sources (CNN, NY Times, etc.) report that his height is 6'2" or more according to the information from his booking.
Resolves to NO if the booking does not take place on Thursday, Aug 24; he is not measured; he is measured but is less than 6'2" tall.
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This also makes it seem pretty likely he wasn't measured: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/24/trump-height-weight/
@TylerMurphy Doesn't seem like it, but is that relevant to your market? NY Times is reporting his height was 6'2" or more according to the information from his booking.
@TylerMurphy in fairness it seems like your YES criteria and your NO criteria are not mutually exclusive, and both have happened.
@DanMan314 You're right. I didn't consider this possibility. What do people think I should do? Resolve N/A if a measurement (rather than self-reported height) doesn't come out?
@TylerMurphy To be honest, I'm not sure. N/A seems reasonable? I agree you could wait a while and see if actually measured stats come out. You might want to highlight this issue in the description/title somewhere, I suspect a lot of people will accidentally trade on it.
I'm selling all my shares in this market.
@LeonardoKr Yeah I think it's standard to weigh and measure but who knows if they'll make an exception for him.
https://manifold.markets/MichaeldelaMaza/will-donald-trump-weigh-280-pounds
@TylerMurphy oh wow I really didn't know. It's such a volatile measure and he's not going to have a cage match, as fashionable as it seems to be these days, that it didn't occur to me as being a possibility during these procedures. Thanks!