Will a pathogenic bacteria be designated a Biosafety Level 4 Organism by the CDC before 2040?
Will a pathogenic bacteria be designated a Biosafety Level 4 Organism by the CDC before 2040?
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90Ṁ152040
52%
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The Center for Disease Control and Prevention assigns a risk group to organisms based on the necessary precautions to contain that organsim within a laboratory. Currently, all BSL-4 agents are viral. However, risks due to bioweapon research, and increasing antibiotic resistance could lead to other agents, possibly including bacterial agents becoming considered dangerous enough to require BSL-4 procedures. The placement of additional agents in the risk group 4 category would be indicative of increased existential risk to humans.
Resolution of this question will be based on the CDC list of BSL-4 agents. If any bacterial agent is placed on this list before January 1st, 2040 the question will resolve yes.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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