Source: BLS, CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month, All items less food and energy.
For example, "The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in February, as it did in January."
Resolves based on the initial release (i.e. subsequent revisions don't affect resolution). Resolves to the reported number rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. [edit: this will resolve to a single bucket based on the percent change; apologies for the change but I think that’s best given how this market type works]
Reported on May 15 (question closes just before release).
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Here’s a dashboard with markets for every month the rest of the year. Next month uses bins again but I adjusted so we can use the reported (rounded) number. Then the rest of the months I tried to keep it even simpler with binary options on each plausible number.
@Tyler31 Feel free to send feedback or suggestions to improve this idea. Would like to see something like this type of market get more traction
Planning to resolve to 0.2-0.3 bucket as it seems the unfounded number is 0.29.
https://manifold.markets/news/where-is-ilya?r=VHlsZXIzMQ
Let me know if anyone sees anything different.
Apologies for the confusion with how this market type works and my initial plan to resolve based on rounded number.
I’m just realizing that I have to resolve to a bin, not a specific number as I described in the description. And the bins are continuous, ie 0.4 is the end of one bin and start of another. Given that, I am leaning towards resolving both bins that include the rounded number. Let me know if you have any alternative proposals or feel that’s unfair.
(Since I was explicit about resolving based on rounded number, it seems worse to go back on that and resolve based on a number with more decimals.)
@Tyler31 i'd resolve it to the nearest hundreth of a percent, and if it's in margin (i.e. rounds to exactly 0.40) then resolve 50/50 (or to both buckets if you can't solve to a percentage)