Will Destiny get into a fight, shoot at someone, or get shot at during 2024?
Will Destiny get into a fight, shoot at someone, or get shot at during 2024?
2
70Ṁ160resolved Apr 18
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Does not need to be on stream
A fight only counts if at least two swings (punch, kick, etc) are taken, at least one of which connects with the other person
Only counts as shooting or getting shot at if the weapon has significant chance of doing bodily harm if the shot hits (nerf gun doesn't count)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.