Which option will have the fewest people betting on it?
18
546
3.9K
resolved Feb 25
4%4%
Obamna
4%3%
YOUR AD COULD BE HERE
4%3%
Empiricalussy
4%3%
Whalewatching
4%3%
I have edited this option. Pray I do not edit it further.
4%3%
Yeah, I know. He needs more, at least M$750k. I want to win this market (https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/ok-this-is-just-getting-silly-now-w)
4%3%
🤯Wow! Cool⚗Science🧪Fact: Death is inescapable!😂
4%3%
What do you mean, Tumbles ♠︎ has never been late to pay back a loan.
4%3%
soda
4%3%
Haley drops out of the primary before March.
4%3%
Sweden joins NATO
4%3%
What's the elephant in the room?
4%2%
Someone accidentally bets on one of the options phrased like statements about the future because they confused this with one of the "What will happen in [month]?" markets.
4%2%
4%2%
This answer won't win.
4%2%
Covfefe
3%3%
This market ends up with 100 options
3%3%
@Tumbles' debt
3%3%
Bazinga
3%3%
where doing it man, where MAKING THIS HAPEN

Close time will be extended by one day every time a new answer is added.

New options can be labeled however you wish, but please keep them PG (avoid swearing, heavy sexuality, etc).

Resolves according to the number of positions marked on each option. In the case of a tie, the market will resolve to each tied option equally.

Note that the special 'other' option that new options are split off from will not be selected.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ721
2Ṁ258
3Ṁ106
4Ṁ41
5Ṁ31
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bought Ṁ100 NO

The market reached its close date! There are no options with 0, 1, or 2 traders. I will now attempt to resolve it evenly to all of the options with 3 traders

@Tumbles wild forgot about this one

@Bayesian Ok there are 28 winners, and it turns out I have to choose a whole number for their percentage to resolve to. If twelve of them resolve 3% and sixteen of them resolve 4%, they will have the correct percentage on average. I will now randomly assign the winners 3% and 4%. I will do so from top to bottom using this ordering given to me by random.org

bought Ṁ40 of Yssulanoitar NO

Turns out you can submit as many blank answers as you want

@ButtocksCocktoasten I mean you technically can, it's not as much fun though

Rationalussy
bought Ṁ200

This one will have the MOST people betting on it

reposted

@Tumbles Couldn't you have done your 500 trades on my options before I took out a loan 😂 ? [Sorry, misclicked, didn't want to share it, but it's a cool market anyways]

bought Ṁ50 of Since there's been c... NO

Do people who never actually traded on an option but hold shares in it because of bets they made on "Other" count as traders for that option? I believe the "Traders" number shown when you click on the option does include them.

@PlasmaBallin This market goes strictly by the displayed "Traders" number on each option

bought Ṁ10 of bepis NO

Number of traders is determined by trading history (who bought / sold shares) or how many ppl are holding shares at the close time

bought Ṁ10 of bepis NO

@TheBayesian I keep assuming it s the latter bc it’s the one that’s easy to check 😟

sold Ṁ12 of Obamna YES

@TheBayesian The easy to check one that Manifold displays on the options!

bought Ṁ2 of Ligma YES

@Tumbles Oh crap! But that can be gamed by people selling their shares no?

bought Ṁ2 of Ligma YES

and that’s not how total traders count for markets work, confusion

sold Ṁ12 of Obamna YES

@TheBayesian yes lol. I'm afraid I've already donated mana to a duck in this way

sold Ṁ12 of Obamna YES

@TheBayesian Now that you mention it I think I can make the title less confusing

sold Ṁ31 of Ligma YES

I'm losing at my own game to a duck