MANIFOLD
Which Melee characters will be used to win a major during 2025?
13
Ṁ260Ṁ2.4k
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
YES
Fox
Resolved
YES
Marth
Resolved
YES
Jigglypuff
Resolved
NO
Luigi
Resolved
NO
Dr. Mario
Resolved
NO
Ganondorf
Resolved
NO
Mario
Resolved
NO
Donkey Kong
Resolved
NO
Young Link
Resolved
NO
Link
Resolved
NO
Falco
Resolved
NO
Sheik
Resolved
NO
Captain Falcon
Resolved
NO
Peach
Resolved
NO
Ice Climbers
Resolved
NO
Pikachu
Resolved
NO
Yoshi
Resolved
NO
Samus
Resolved
NO
Bowser
Resolved
NO
Kirby

IMPORTANT: For an option to resolve YES the winner of a major needs to use that character during Grand Finals, Winner's Finals, Winner's Semifinals, Loser's Finals, Loser's Semifinals, or Loser's Quarterfinals. Also, they must win at least one of the games in which they used that character.

For the purposes of this market, a particular game win can only count for Zelda or Sheik but not both. It counts as a Zelda win if at least three of the enemy's stocks are taken entirely by Zelda without transforming into Sheik. So the enemy must go from 0% to death without Sheik's involvement, three times, in a single game. Transforming back and forth inconsequentially, such as in between stocks or while failing to recover, doesn't count. If that criteria is not met, the game counts as a Sheik win.

If a tournament is downgraded from or upgraded to a Major, this market will endeavor to change resolutions accordingly IF the upgrade/downgrade occurs before the February 2026.

If an option should resolve YES but nobody points it out in the comments of this market, that option is liable to resolve NO at any time before February 2026. In that specific scenario traders forfeit the right to demand that particular resolution be corrected, though I may correct the resolution at my own personal discretion.

I will be deferring to Liquipedia on which tournaments count as a 'Major'.

Be sure to check out the SSBM Tournament dashboard! 🏆

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I just tweaked the rules around Sheik/Zelda. Tiny detail, doesn't change much, just removed a corner case where a player frequently transforming between Sheik and Zelda could technically win a major without counting as having used any character at all.

@Tumbles Also added rules for if a character wins but isn't noticed, and for what happens when tournaments are upgraded or downgraded after the fact

How exactly does Zelda resolve? What if a Sheik player accidentally transforms into Zelda and lands a single "get-off-me" b-air before transforming back? What if the Sheik player transforms into Zelda solely for the purpose of recovering and then wins the game? What if the transformation + recovery is plausibly non-determinative (e.g. it was done in a 4-to-1-stock situation and the Sheik player almost certainly would have won anyway)?

@NBAP Woops I thought of that case but didn't actually type what I thought of 😝 I'll add it to description now

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