This market is implementing the proposed test in the followup blog post about the market implementing the proposed test in this blog post.
This market resolves according to Dynomight's proposed experiment:
To be clear, when this market resolves:
-The coin with the highest predicted chance of landing heads resolves according to what is detailed above
-The other coin, the coin that has the lower predicted chance of landing heads, resolves NA
I have already generated what coin B will land on. MD5 hash of the result: 90f304fdae391c7b694c1127537c1707
generated via https://www.md5hashgenerator.com/
All random chance will be publicly implemented via @FairlyRandom in the comments.
The scheduled time for following Dynomight's daily procedure is 4:20pm, but it will vary based on my personal convenience. The daily procedure will begin occurring on the 29th.
I have bet the chance of coin A resolving heads to 59%, but from this point on I will not bet on either coin.
The sister market to this one: /Tumbles/futarchys-fundamental-flaw-the-mark-OR85qIqIcN
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ8 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 |
@Tumbles This is a misresolve. The whole point of the market is that there's a chance that the identity of coin B can be revealed before the market resolves and you resolving this way leaves no chance of that.
@BoltonBailey Oh wait, sorry did the market already hit 2? In that case my bad, this is substantially more fair than I thought you were being.
@zsig good question, underspecified! I'm inclined to choose one at random unless someone has a more fair solution. I prefer choosing at random to NAing both
FYI, my math says the correct price for coin B before any information was revealed should have been 74.2138%
If the chance of coin B being 'always heads' had been 5%, the correct market value would have been almost double that at 10%
General formula for the optimal market price 'p', given a chance 'b' of Coin B landing heads:
General formula for relating the optimal market price 'p', chance 'b' of Coin B landing heads, and chance 'r' of the nature of coin B being revealed before resolution occurs:
welp, on the very first roll we've hit "reveal the nature of coin B"
Coin B always lands on tails!
The hashed message was the following:
coin B always lands on tails, as generated by https://www.mathmammoth.com/practice/coin-tosser