Futarchy’s Fundamental Flaw - the market - the blog post - the market - the sequel
59%
Coin A
52%
Coin B

This is the sequel market to the market implementing proposed test in the followup blog post about the market implementing the proposed test in this blog post.

⭐⭐⭐

If you want to be told one of the ten bits which determine how coin B resolves, just comment on this market asking for one! This market will resolve at 4:20 pm, seven days after the final bit is handed out.

Remaining bits up for grabs: 10

Note that there are no rules about what you do with the bit once you are told, feel free to share the information or keep it to yourself as you please.

⭐⭐⭐

This market resolves according to Dynomight's proposed experiment:

IMPORTANT INFO: I have tweaked the setup a bit. In addition to the changes in red, each of the ten bits had a 59% chance of being a 1 and 41% chance of being a 0. These bits have already been generated, so the 'weight' of coin B is locked in, but the actual 'flipping' of the coin will be done publicly at time of resolution.

To be clear, when this market resolves:

-The coin with the highest predicted chance of landing heads resolves according to what is detailed above

-The other coin, the coin that has the lower predicted chance of landing heads, resolves NA

MD5 hash of the ten bits which determine Coin B's chance of landing on heads: 4aedaed1791d8b56f0f714abad5c81ba

generated via https://www.md5hashgenerator.com/

All random chance will be publicly implemented via @FairlyRandom in the comments.

I have bet the chance of coin A resolving heads to 59%, but from this point on I will not bet on either coin.


The sister market to this one: /Tumbles/futarchys-fundamental-flaw-the-mark-d9LsnOnzhI

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Go ahead and ask for a bit, and I'll DM you one!

@Tumbles can I haz

@Tumbles 1 bit please

@Tumbles Thanks for making this market, I'm curious what will happen! I'd like a bit.

@Tumbles This is a very interesting experiment, also please may I have a bit

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