This is the sequel market to the market implementing proposed test in the followup blog post about the market implementing the proposed test in this blog post.
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Remaining bits up for grabs: 0
All bits have now been claimed!
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This market resolves according to Dynomight's proposed experiment:
IMPORTANT INFO: I have tweaked the setup a bit. In addition to the changes in red, each of the ten bits had a 59% chance of being a 1 and 41% chance of being a 0. These bits have already been generated, so the 'weight' of coin B is locked in, but the actual 'flipping' of the coin will be done publicly at time of resolution.
To be clear, when this market resolves:
-The coin with the highest predicted chance of landing heads resolves according to what is detailed above
-The other coin, the coin that has the lower predicted chance of landing heads, resolves NA
MD5 hash of the ten bits which determine Coin B's chance of landing on heads: 4aedaed1791d8b56f0f714abad5c81ba
generated via https://www.md5hashgenerator.com/
All random chance will be publicly implemented via @FairlyRandom in the comments.
I have bet the chance of coin A resolving heads to 59%, but from this point on I will not bet on either coin.
The sister market to this one: /Tumbles/futarchys-fundamental-flaw-the-mark-d9LsnOnzhI
Derivative market: /BoltonBailey/which-coin-will-end-with-the-higher
1,000@UnconditionalProbability your random number is: 4
Salt: ghyw96rkzj, round: 5378138 (signature 8056c7aee57858f75819eaf351341789e405645195cc8ff34e375e9994683730749ed04cd7a74a244bb7a7ad816cf1280af758bec7a51127dad8b06105c14e01570e22ac43af322250fa2d02add15016c258e209212a18fd63ffba49bd4f67b5)
@UnconditionalProbability your random number is: 1
Salt: s141qdngef, round: 5378138 (signature 8056c7aee57858f75819eaf351341789e405645195cc8ff34e375e9994683730749ed04cd7a74a244bb7a7ad816cf1280af758bec7a51127dad8b06105c14e01570e22ac43af322250fa2d02add15016c258e209212a18fd63ffba49bd4f67b5)
@UnconditionalProbability your random number is: 4
Salt: 1xqhzg4kpw3, round: 5378138 (signature 8056c7aee57858f75819eaf351341789e405645195cc8ff34e375e9994683730749ed04cd7a74a244bb7a7ad816cf1280af758bec7a51127dad8b06105c14e01570e22ac43af322250fa2d02add15016c258e209212a18fd63ffba49bd4f67b5)
@UnconditionalProbability you asked for a random integer between 1 and 4, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 5378136 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5378138, salt: ghyw96rkzj.
@UnconditionalProbability you asked for a random integer between 1 and 4, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 5378136 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5378138, salt: s141qdngef.
@UnconditionalProbability you asked for a random integer between 1 and 4, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 5378136 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5378138, salt: 1xqhzg4kpw3.
I have acquired another bit from an individual who has not otherwise revealed their bit, and will not reveal their bit to anyone else. I'm selling the bit on their behalf with a screenshot containing the original message from Tumbles for 26M. (Different cost to differentiate which bit is being bought, send me 51M and I'll give you both.)
@Jasonb Doesn't seem like it would be worth that much, even if all the bits were 1, it looks like there's only about 300 mana of extractable liquidity from driving the coin B market to 100%. So at the very most, knowing at 10 bits could be worth 300 mana, or about 30 mana per bit, but due to the possibility of some bits being zero, it seems like knowing them all would be worth less than 300 mana.
@BoltonBailey This is true, although you could earn more if people didn't know you knew all the bits and traded against you
I will buy partial bits for 10M each! The way this works is as follows:
Pick a number from 1 to 4, and publicly commit a hash of this number (make sure to write it in a sentence and hash that, don't just hash the number itself or it can be brute forced)
Publicly roll FairlyRandom 4 -- if it matches your number secretly invert your bit, otherwise don't.
DM me your bit (or its inverse, as applicable), and a link to the hash and the FairlyRandom roll. Hash must be committed before rolling, and only roll once!
After the market resolves, you reveal your hash sentence and I send you 10M if I confirm that you followed this procedure correctly.
TLDR: If you guessed the FairlyRandom roll correctly you lie (25% chance), if not you tell the truth (75% chance).
Each person who got a bit (and hasn't already revealed it publicly) is eligible to participate up to 3 times.
@A Note that this offer is non-exclusive -- you can sell partial bits to me and also sell the full bit to someone else. Just please don't post the bit publicly!
@UnconditionalProbability Hashes will be matched with responses from the bot in the order that the bot responds.