Will there be news in 2024 of someone finding a walrus at their door?
12
67
320
2025
6%
chance

In 2024, the great walrus-versus-fairy war was fought on tumblr. As several people pointed out, the fact of its having been fought itself means that it will now be less surprising if someone hears a knock at their door, opens it, and finds a walrus there, because that's now a Known Prank In The Public Consciousness. But there remains a question of how unsurprising it will be.

Question resolves Yes if I become aware of at least one news-article released in 2024, from a real (non-satirical) news organization which appears to the best of my ability to discern to be reporting truthfully, of someone opening their door to find a walrus just outside. An article primarily about other things, which mentions a walrus-at-door incident in an offhand not-a-primary-focus sort of way, won't count for purposes of this market's resolution. The preceding knock, although part of the tumblr-meme, is optional for purposes of this market's resolution; its absence won't disqualify an otherwise-qualifying article.

Given the fuzziness of the resolution criteria, I won't be buying shares in this market.

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Created https://manifold.markets/SGQ/will-there-be-news-in-2024-of-someo-9364fc2c75d8 so now we just need to compare the probabilities of both and have Efficient Market Forces solve the argument once and for all