If, some time before or during the release of real-money trading on Manifold, markets become harder for users to N/A, do we expect Manifold to, within two months after that change, add a dedicated feature for conditional markets of the sort which have historically been handled via N/A? Or will we instead need to use three-way multiple-choice markets like this one to fulfill the conditional-market function?
Market resolves Yes if N/Aing is made harder and conditional markets are added within two months of that (even if they're e.g. subsequently removed, numeric-markets-style); market resolves No if N/Aing is made harder and conditional markets aren't added within two months of that; market resolves N/A—the multiple-choice option, that is, not the one that undoes all prior trades—if N/Aing isn't made harder within a month of the release of real-money trading.
(If conditional markets are added before N/Aing is made harder, this will count as 'within two months' and will trigger a Yes resolution irrespective of whether N/Aing is subsequently made harder.)
N/Aing has been made harder. The two-month countdown begins today.