Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Reserve announces a pilot program for a wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) on or before December 31, 2027. The announcement must be made through an official Federal Reserve communication channel, such as a press release or official statement. If no such announcement is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

A wholesale CBDC is a digital currency issued by a central bank, intended for use by financial institutions for interbank transactions, as opposed to retail CBDCs, which are designed for public use. The Federal Reserve has previously engaged in research related to CBDCs. For instance, Project Hamilton, a collaboration between the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, explored the technical feasibility of a U.S. CBDC. However, as of early 2025, the Federal Reserve has indicated a shift in focus. Governor Christopher Waller stated that the Fed has "dropped this whole language of this term 'wholesale,'" emphasizing that existing bank reserves already function as a form of digital currency for interbank settlements. Additionally, in January 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order prohibiting federal agencies from establishing or promoting CBDCs, effectively halting any ongoing plans related to their development.

Considerations

While the current stance of the Federal Reserve and the executive order suggest a low likelihood of a wholesale CBDC pilot announcement in the near future, political and economic landscapes can change. Future administrations or shifts in monetary policy priorities could influence the Federal Reserve's approach to CBDCs. Traders should monitor official Federal Reserve communications and policy changes for any developments related to wholesale CBDCs.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Reserve announces a pilot program for a wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) on or before December 31, 2027. The announcement must be made through an official Federal Reserve communication channel, such as a press release or official statement. If no such announcement is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

A wholesale CBDC is a digital currency issued by a central bank, intended for use by financial institutions for interbank transactions, as opposed to retail CBDCs, which are designed for public use. The Federal Reserve has previously engaged in research related to CBDCs. For instance, Project Hamilton, a collaboration between the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, explored the technical feasibility of a U.S. CBDC. However, as of early 2025, the Federal Reserve has indicated a shift in focus. Governor Christopher Waller stated that the Fed has "dropped this whole language of this term 'wholesale,'" emphasizing that existing bank reserves already function as a form of digital currency for interbank settlements. Additionally, in January 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order prohibiting federal agencies from establishing or promoting CBDCs, effectively halting any ongoing plans related to their development.

Considerations

While the current stance of the Federal Reserve and the executive order suggest a low likelihood of a wholesale CBDC pilot announcement in the near future, political and economic landscapes can change. Future administrations or shifts in monetary policy priorities could influence the Federal Reserve's approach to CBDCs. Traders should monitor official Federal Reserve communications and policy changes for any developments related to wholesale CBDCs.