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Will resolve yes if all surviving hostages are released. Will resolve no if all hostages are killed or dead before release.
Update 2025-14-01 (PST): - If all surviving hostages are not released alive or dead by the end of February 2025, the market resolves to No. (AI summary of creator comment)
Are all living supposed to be released in phase 1? Comments like attached "..at end of phase 1 after all nine living hostages are back.." indicates yes but I can't find anything on Google where this is spelled out clearly. From wiki "In the second stage, Israel would accept a permanent ceasefire and Hamas would then release the remaining living male hostages, both civilians and soldiers..." indicates no some are left. @TrustMe @Ammar @CarmelHadar @Benbones99
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@smokey I was confused by the sudden demand to release all hostages from Trump. Made me question if I understood phase 1 of the ceasefire properly since I didn't remember that being part of it.
My best guess is it was an attempt at a negotiation tactic from Trump since Hamas was upset with all the ceasefire violations and not allowing the agreed upon humanitarian aid to enter, then said it wouldn't release the next batch as a result. Many of those trucks were suddenly allowed in and then Hamas said it would release the 3 on Saturday. Both sides probably giving themselves credit, but that's a guess, I haven't looked it up.
@smokey sorry, forgot to add a source: https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-report-israeli-ceasefire-violations-gaza-netanyahu
@Ammar hehe maybe Trump too was confused and though all hostages was to be returned in phase 1, so he didn't understand how extreme his demand was... either way seems to be pressure in Israel to act the way Trump suggested so we'll see
The description skips over the case of hostages being alive but released after feb 2025. It's implied, in that situation, that this market will resolve 'No', but i'd still like it clarified:
If there's an agreement to release all living hostages (by hamas and israel), but they still aren't all released by end of feb 2025, then this resolves as 'No'?
@Ammar - it's clearly implied if they are not relased alive or dead by end of February this resolves to No