Will Will Hurd make it onto the debate stage of an RNC sanctioned debate during the Republican primaries?
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530Ṁ16kresolved Jan 14
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If Will Hurd is invited to and attends an RNC sanctioned presidential primary debate, and makes it onto the stage as a debate participant along with other candidates, then this market will resolve to YES.
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It looks like he didn't make it. It's a shame. It would have been good to have someone with his background on the debate stage.
https://www.texastribune.org/2023/08/22/will-hurd-republican-presidential-debate/
:focal(0x0:3000x2000)/static.texastribune.org/media/files/1a078060306d565f4414fe8a7539215a/0922%20Will%20Hurd%20EG%20TT%2013.jpg)
He's announced that he has the 40k unique donors and is currently focusing on debate prep.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.