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We're talking about the two heavyweights of Rugby Union going head-to-head to become the most decorated nation in the sport. With both teams currently tied on three World Cup victories. This extra variable will make statistics and predictions a little less relevant. However, experts are giving a 60% probability for New Zealand to bring the trophy home. Moreover, a ML algorithm has predicted the result of the game, and once again the odds are in New Zealand favor (33% against 26% for South Africa).
Despite a recent loss to South Africa in August, All Blacks fans have reason for optimism. Statistical modeling, known as Rugby Vision, projects New Zealand as favorites to claim the 2023 Rugby World Cup (RWC), with a 33.5% chance of securing their fourth title. South Africa follows at 26.2%, then France at 20.6%, and Ireland at 11.9%. The model's track record in past RWC predictions attests to its accuracy and robust calibration. While it shares similarities with official rugby rankings, it's less influenced by individual match outcomes.
