If Francis X. Suarez is invited to and attends an RNC sanctioned presidential primary debate, and makes it onto the stage as a debate participant along with other candidates, then this market will resolve to YES.
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He's out of the race. This resolves NO.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article278480929.html
@marnet Technically he could re-enter and qualify for a debate (see Ross Perot, 1992 and Gary Hart, 1984). It’s pretty unlikely, but I’ve set a YES order at 2%.
@Conflux actually nevermind, Perot and Hart were in pretty different situations than Suarez; my order now moved down to 1%, and a resolution is reasonable (but might have to be reresolved)
@marnet Won't resolve until all the debates are done.
If you wanted a market to bet on for campaign suspension there was this one: https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-francis-x-suarez-suspend-his-p
@Tripping the debates should be done now? (especially since it's "RNC sponsored"). the other deabte participation markets have finished https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums