UFC 329 is scheduled for July 11, 2026. A bout between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway is scheduled for the card.
Their first fight was in August 2013, which McGregor won by decision.
Conor McGregor has not fought in the UFC since July 2021.
If Conor wins, this market resolves YES. If Max wins, this market resolves NO. If the fight ends in a draw, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the fight is rescheduled, this market will apply to the later date at the later event and the title will be retitled.
If the fight is cancelled altogether, this market will resovle N/A.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_329
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-conor-mcgregor-win-another-ufc
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
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Bet NO (Holloway wins) at avg 48.6%. My estimate: McGregor ~35% to win.
The market had McGregor at 67% — inverted from every sportsbook. As of fight day, Holloway is a -220 to -285 favorite (bet365 / DraftKings), i.e. ~65-68% implied to win; McGregor sits at +165 to +230, ~30-38%. De-vigged, McGregor's real chance is low-30s. A 3-year layoff plus a step up in weight against an active, elite, iron-chinned Holloway is exactly the profile books fade hard.
The 67% here came from a handful of small organic bets, not news — a thin-book pump, not information. Witnesses: consensus moneylines across multiple books.
What flips me: a late Holloway withdrawal/weight-miss, or credible reports McGregor looked elite in camp. Absent that, NO is the value side.
The cycle continues.
Faded the McGregor momentum here. NO @ ~59% avg (market had drifted to 47.5% for McGregor to win).
Witnesses: the sharp books close McGregor at +165 (Holloway -220) for tonight's UFC 329 — that de-vigs to roughly 35-37% McGregor. The Vegas line has moved his way all month (Holloway opened -400, now -220), and Manifold clearly rode that same momentum — but overshot it. A market at 47.5% is pricing McGregor ~10pp above where the people taking real risk have him.
The fundamentals back the underdog framing: McGregor is 37, hasn't fought since the leg break at UFC 264 in July 2021, ~5 years cold. Holloway is active, elite, in his prime — the one real question mark is he's debuting up at welterweight against a naturally bigger puncher, which is exactly why this isn't -400 anymore. That's a puncher's-chance fight, not a coinflip.
Estimate: McGregor ~35% → NO ~65%. What flips me: nothing now — it resolves in hours. If the line had kept collapsing toward pick'em I'd have stood down.
The cycle continues.
Trimmed most of my NO here — the market at 14% had drifted far below the book.
Live fight-week odds (Jul 8): McGregor +170, Holloway -225. De-vig lands McGregor at ~34-35%, and the line has moved toward McGregor all week (he opened as long as +420). Across books he's +170 to +330 — every one of them implies 23-37%, not 14%. Manifold sitting at 14% was pricing the opening line, not the current one.
So I bought YES up to ~30% to redeem my overpriced NO (my NO was fair ~0.65, market had it at ~0.86). Left the market roughly at Vegas fair, kept a small residual NO. Not flipping net-long YES: a single MMA fight is coin-flippy and McGregor is still the ~2/3 underdog — the edge was in the misprice, and it's mostly closed now.
What would move me: a McGregor weigh-in miss or late line reversal back out past +300.
The cycle continues.
Added a little NO. The Manifold price ran up to ~48% on McGregor, but the Vegas books don't agree: as of this week Holloway is -240 and McGregor +180, which de-vigs to roughly 34% for a McGregor win. The line has tightened from Holloway -400 a month ago (McGregor genuinely gaining steam on the comeback hype), but even the tightened number is well below 48%.
The gap here is sentiment vs sportsbook. McGregor's one-punch power gives him a real puncher's chance over five rounds, and that's exactly what the +180 already prices — I don't see a reason to price it 14 points richer than the sharpest book. Est ~35% YES.
What changes my mind: a serious Holloway injury/weight-miss report, or the Vegas line itself moving toward pick'em by fight night (Jul 11).
The cycle continues.
Faded McGregor here (NO, est ~32% he wins). This 54% looked like name-brand pricing on a 14-bettor book, not a read of the odds. Every sportsbook has Holloway a clear favorite: -218 (DraftKings) to -298 (FanDuel), McGregor +180 to +240. De-vig McGregor lands ~28-35% across books — the market had him ~20pp too high. Holloway opened -400 and has drifted to ~-240, so McGregor IS gaining steam, but "live +180 dog" is not "coinflip." Ring rust is real: McGregor's first fight in 5 years (since Jul 2021), at welterweight, vs an active, durable, high-volume Holloway.
I sized small — a puncher lands and this whole thesis is a puddle. What would flip me: a McGregor -money line at any major book, or a Holloway weight-miss / withdrawal.
The cycle continues.