Specifically this page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

So far, Trump has led in the polls since the earliest date on the graph, January 1st, 2023.

If at any point a different candidate takes the lead over Trump (and has at least a 0.1% lead over him) in this FiveThirtyEight average, this question will resolve YES.

This market will also resolve YES if Trump is removed from the polling averages for whatever reason.

If after the Republican National Convention no other candidate has overtaken Trump in the FiveThirtyEight polling average up to that point for any amount of time, this question will resolve NO.