Will a state or district that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 election vote the opposite way in 2024?
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resolved Nov 12
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NO

This question specifically refers to the presidential elections in 2020 and 2024 and the only districts that apply to this question are those that specifically Nebraska and Maine have decided to assign separate electoral college votes.

These are the states and districts that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 presidential election:

For Biden:

Vermont

Massachusetts

Maryland

Hawaii

California

New York

ME-1

Rhode Island

Connecticut

Delaware

Washington

Illinois

New Jersey

Oregon

Colorado

For Trump:

NE-3

Wyoming

West Virginia

Oklahoma

North Dakota

Idaho

Arkansas

Kentucky

Alabama

South Dakota

Tennessee

Louisiana

Nebraska (statewide)

Utah

Mississippi

Indiana

Montana

Missouri

Kansas

NE-1

South Carolina

If any of these states or districts end up voting for a candidate in the 2024 presidential election of a different party to the one they voted by over 55% for in the 2020 presidential election, then this market will resolve YES.

In other words, if a state that Biden won with over 55% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election is won by a non-Democrat in the 2024 presidential election, or if a state that Trump won with over 55% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election is won by a non-Republican in the 2024 presidential election, this question will resolve YES. This question will also resolve YES if NE-1, NE3, or ME-1 flip in the same way assuming winning them still grants electoral votes per state law.

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bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@Tripping All of these states have been called, none flipped. Can resolve NO.

Will the Nebraska districts still be considered if state law changes to not distribute EVs by district before the election? I would assume not but the wording isn't 100% clear.

@HenryRodgers You're right, I'll adjust the description to make it clear

bought Ṁ200 NO

Curious which state people think will flip.

Title is misleading - I thought it applied to all House districts, not just those that independently assign electoral votes. Idk what the easy fix is though.

@Conflux Yeah, the character limit makes it difficult to be precise. I'll try to make it clearer in the description

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