Will a majority of voters in Queensland vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum?
Will a majority of voters in Queensland vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum?
18
330Ṁ29kresolved Oct 18
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states).
If a majority of voters in Queensland vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to YES.
If a majority of voters in Queensland do not vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to NO.
If the referendum is not held, this market will resolve to N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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"No" now consistently polls pluralities or even outright majorities in Queensland and is trending stronger.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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