How much of the popular vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
228
11kแน€110k
resolved Jan 24
Resolved
YES
More than 37.45% of the vote (what George H. W. Bush got in the 1992 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 38.47% of the vote (what Barry Goldwater got in the 1964 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 40.56% of the vote (what Walter Mondale got in the 1984 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 40.71% of the vote (what Bob Dole got in the 1996 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 41.01% of the vote (what Jimmy Carter got in the 1980 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 41.97% of the vote (what Adlai Stevenson II got in the 1956 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 42.72% of the vote (what Hubert Humphrey got in the 1968 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 43.01% of the vote (what Bill Clinton got in the 1992 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 43.42% of the vote (what Richard Nixon got in the 1968 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 44.33% of the vote (what Adlai Stevenson II got in the 1952 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 45.65% of the vote (what John McCain got in the 2008 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 46.09% of the vote (what Donald Trump got in the 2016 election)
Resolved
YES
More than 46.85% of the vote (what Donald Trump got in the 2020 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 61.05% of the vote (what Lyndon B. Johnson got in the 1964 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 60.67% of the vote (what Richard Nixon got in the 1972 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 58.77% of the vote (what Ronald Reagan got in the 1984 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 57.37% of the vote (what Dwight D. Eisenhower got in the 1956 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 55.18% of the vote (What Dwight D. Eisenhower got in the 1952 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 53.37% of the vote (what George H. W. Bush got in the 1988 election)
Resolved
NO
More than 52.93% of the vote (what Barack Obama got in the 2008 election)

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about Trump's bid to other modern presidential election results.

A combination of the Federal Election Commission's numbers and Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market. Dave Leip's numbers will be used for the 2024 election.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Joe Biden answer should not be taken as 51.31% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total he actually got according to the FEC (81,283,501/158,429,631=~51.305744%) or according to Dave Leip's numbers for older elections.

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.

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@creator remainder resolve?

@mods request to resolve this market

@polymathematic @MikeChenSF Pinging using @creator doesn't actually work right now, I'll resolve but pinging @Tripping again first in case they want to resolve

@creator can the final options resolve now that the vote has been officially certified by congress? Dave Leip's site hasn't changed its numbers for several weeks now, so I believe they are final.

bought แน€50 YES

I've got Trump 2024 at 49.7167% according to Leip and Kennedy 1960 at 49.7163%. Does that match what you're planning to go by, @Tripping?

@mods need an unresolve on 61.05% Lyndon johnson, fat fingered it

sold แน€7 YES

@Tripping Will all be resolved at the same time or will you resolve the extreme ones (that are already guaranteed or impossible) earlier?

I'll do some early ones

Going to make the resolution criteria Dave Leip in the interests of speedy resolution, sorry to the fans who wanted to wait 2 years

Starkboughtแน€10 NO

Related market: https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/what-will-trumps-vote-share-be-in-t-eb4aaf710cc0

Trump 50-60 seems pretty undervalued there in comparison.

if Trump is not the Republican nominee, does this resolve NO or N/A

@nikki Depends on whether he gets enough of the popular vote, not on whether he's the nominee.

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