How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
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Nov 11
98%
Larger than 0.09% (the margin of James Garfield's victory over Winfield Hancock in 1880, 48.31% to 48.22%)
98%
Larger than 0.17% (the margin of John Kennedy's victory over Richard Nixon in 1960, 49.72% to 49.55%)
94%
Larger than 0.51% (the margin of Al Gore's victory over George W. Bush in 2000, 48.38% to 47.87%)
93%
Larger than 0.57% (the margin of Grover Cleveland's victory over James Blaine in 1884, 48.85% to 48.28%)
92%
Larger than 0.7% (the margin of Richard Nixon's victory over Hubert Humphrey in 1968, 43.42% to 42.72%)
92%
Larger than 0.83% (the margin of Grover Cleveland's victory over Benjamin Harrison in 1888, 48.63% to 47.8%)
58%
Larger than 1.45% (the margin of James Polk's victory over Henry Clay in 1844, 49.54% to 48.09%)
25%
Larger than 2.09% (the margin of Hillary Clinton's victory over Donald Trump in 2016, 48.02% to 45.93%)
10%
Larger than 2.47% (the margin of George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry in 2004, 50.73% to 48.26%)
9%
Larger than 3.01% (the margin of Grover Cleveland's victory over Benjamin Harrison in 1892, 46.02% to 43.01%)
8%
Larger than 3.14% (the margin of Woodrow Wilson's victory over Charles Hughes in 1916, 49.25% to 46.11%)
8%
Larger than 3.86% (the margin of Barack Obama's victory over Mitt Romney in 2012, 51.01% to 47.15%)
5%
Larger than 4.45% (the margin of Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump in 2020, 51.25% to 46.8%)
3%
Larger than 5.56% (the margin of Bill Clinton's victory over George H. W. Bush in 1992, 43.01% to 37.45%)
3%
Larger than 7.26% (the margin of Barack Obama's victory over John McCain in 2008, 52.86% to 45.6%)
2%
Larger than 7.72% (the margin of George H. W. Bush's victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988, 53.37% to 45.65%)
2%
Larger than 8.51% (the margin of Bill Clinton's victory over Bob Dole in 1996, 49.23% to 40.72%)
1%
Larger than 9.74% (the margin of Ronald Reagan's victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980, 50.75% to 41.01%)

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about the popular vote margin to previous presidential election results.

Dave Leip's numbers are used and will be used to resolve this market.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific margin should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the margin of the popular vote in that election (e.g. the 2020 result should be considered 81286454-74225926=7060528, 7060528/158594895= ~4.44519264%) according to Dave Leip's numbers.

I've made Dave Leip's numbers the resolution criteria this time, so you won't have to wait for the FEC report. If Dave Leip's website explodes I'll use whatever looks like consensus to me among other election results sources, in the interest of speedy resolution. If there's a big disagreement between reputable sources for specific thresholds, then I'll wait for the FEC report for those specific threshold answers and resolve the rest.

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.

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bought แน€25 Larger than 4.45% (t... NO

Good market. I had a similar one but not comulative

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