After the next Australian federal election, will the crossbench in the Senate be larger than after the last election?
3
110Ṁ40May 25
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next federal election in the Senate must take place before the 24th of May, 2025.
After the last federal election, there were 18 senators on the crossbench (neither the government or the opposition). If after the next Senate election, there are 19 or more senators on the crossbench, this question will resolve YES. If there are 18 or fewer, this question will resolve NO.
(Note that senators like David Van who move to the crossbench and proceed to either not be up for election or win re-election at the next Senate election could end up counting towards this total)
This question will resolve only after the ABC's senate results page has no seats remaining in doubt.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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