Odds of Biden winning is above 50% at the end of 2023
217
1.8kṀ52k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Settles to YES if the probability of Biden winning is >=50% on Dec 31 @ 11:59pm EST. Probability derived from this market:

Edit: Will use the API derived prob as of 11:59:00p EST 12/31.

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where'd all the limit orders at 49 go 😱

@TrentonPotter

Time just happened, market is at 48%

Resolves No

currently sitting pretty at 50%

To prevent last minute price changes, you should resolve this at a random time during the last three days of the year, or something like that.

predictedNO

@makeworld that's a reasonable approach, but to stay consistent with the original intent (and what's been bet on), I'll use the API derived prob on settle. This also avoids conflicts of interest since I've had stakes in the market.

In the future, to avoid mark manipulation, I'll be cognizant of other schemes like you proposed.

Is this whalebait?

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