Odds of Biden winning is above 50% at the end of 2023
217
1.8K
1.8K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Settles to YES if the probability of Biden winning is >=50% on Dec 31 @ 11:59pm EST. Probability derived from this market:

Edit: Will use the API derived prob as of 11:59:00p EST 12/31.

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bought Ṁ3 of YES

where'd all the limit orders at 49 go 😱

bought Ṁ114 of NO

@TrentonPotter

Time just happened, market is at 48%

bought Ṁ103 of NO

Resolves No

sold Ṁ15 of YES

currently sitting pretty at 50%

bought Ṁ50 of NO

To prevent last minute price changes, you should resolve this at a random time during the last three days of the year, or something like that.

predicted NO

@makeworld that's a reasonable approach, but to stay consistent with the original intent (and what's been bet on), I'll use the API derived prob on settle. This also avoids conflicts of interest since I've had stakes in the market.

In the future, to avoid mark manipulation, I'll be cognizant of other schemes like you proposed.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Is this whalebait?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

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