! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these !
Yes = heads
No = tails
(Day 323)
Current totals: 167 heads vs 155 tails
Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)
Yesterday’s flip: YES
@FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome
1 = heads
2 = tails
Resolution can be expected within 24 hours after closing
Should @FairlyRandom fail to produce an outcome 24 hours after the close date and a final request (here > testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip (outcome is final).
Should @FairlyRandom produce multiple responses to the queries >1 hour after their requests, they will be discarded and the outcome rerolled.
Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-
Longest win streak: @Skyguy (of 7)
Longest loss streak: @QuestionableQuentin (of 11)
Biggest win: @risk (of 553M profit on day 315)
Biggest loss: @inaccessibles (of 23,073M on day 298)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,172 | |
| 2 | Ṁ969 | |
| 3 | Ṁ745 | |
| 4 | Ṁ737 | |
| 5 | Ṁ500 |
People are also trading
@Ersagun The phrasing "51% chance" is misleading. The "chance" part makes sense for other prediction markets where we don't know the true probability. Here we know the true probability is 50%, so the market is off if it doesn't display 50% and you are expected to make a small profit (on average) if you buy shares towards 50%.
@Ersagun What I meant: The market displays it as "chance", which might be misleading to some people. (At least I keep seeing traders who buy YES at 51% and buy NO at 49%, rather than the other way around. One possible explanation is that they are misled by the use of the word "chance".)
@atmidnight So what do you guys think this one is, is this a scam? : After I pointed out a similar discrepancy in another market, (and I had bet on the discrepancy), a user just went overboard with it, he bet the same as me and moved the market value too much. I sold all my shares and made lots of profit. And he responded by making me lose in another market(by a smaller margin), so I figured he must have got salt over that. Am I in the wrong?
@Ersagun Why would you think it's a scam? Because the prediction is off almost all the time?
- I bought NO shares at 51% and am willing to sell at 50.5%, which is also displayed as 51%. (Others are then buying at 50.5% and selling (or holding) at 50%, for example.)
- As mentioned above, I have the theory that some traders confuse prediction with true probability and bet in the wrong direction, but that's just a theory.
- Both of these move the market away from the true probability.
The biggest scam is that the title says "daily", but it always lasts 48h. 😆 Not complaining, just joking.
This is apparently coin flip #323 – if it was a scam, Manifold would have intervened by now.
I lack context to answer your other question. How did the other trader "make" you lose in a market?
@Ersagun (Oh, now I get what you meant. 😅) Misled the other trader? Maybe. Intentionally misled them? Doesn't sound like it.
