Why 51% though? This is not a real coinflip.

@Ersagun The phrasing "51% chance" is misleading. The "chance" part makes sense for other prediction markets where we don't know the true probability. Here we know the true probability is 50%, so the market is off if it doesn't display 50% and you are expected to make a small profit (on average) if you buy shares towards 50%.

I didn't say chance, but I could have. It's the market's prediction of the chance of a heads. And it's off.

@Ersagun What I meant: The market displays it as "chance", which might be misleading to some people. (At least I keep seeing traders who buy YES at 51% and buy NO at 49%, rather than the other way around. One possible explanation is that they are misled by the use of the word "chance".)

@Ersagun are you happy now

@atmidnight I've been scammed

@atmidnight yea

@atmidnight How have you been scammed?

@4fa You!!!!

@atmidnight Scams involve dishonesty or fraud. What do you perceive as dishonest or fraudulent?

@4fa I'm just jokin ;(

@atmidnight So what do you guys think this one is, is this a scam? : After I pointed out a similar discrepancy in another market, (and I had bet on the discrepancy), a user just went overboard with it, he bet the same as me and moved the market value too much. I sold all my shares and made lots of profit. And he responded by making me lose in another market(by a smaller margin), so I figured he must have got salt over that. Am I in the wrong?

@Ersagun (I don't think I am, but you never know)

@Ersagun Why would you think it's a scam? Because the prediction is off almost all the time?
- I bought NO shares at 51% and am willing to sell at 50.5%, which is also displayed as 51%. (Others are then buying at 50.5% and selling (or holding) at 50%, for example.)
- As mentioned above, I have the theory that some traders confuse prediction with true probability and bet in the wrong direction, but that's just a theory.
- Both of these move the market away from the true probability.

The biggest scam is that the title says "daily", but it always lasts 48h. 😆 Not complaining, just joking.
This is apparently coin flip #323 – if it was a scam, Manifold would have intervened by now.

I lack context to answer your other question. How did the other trader "make" you lose in a market?

@4fa Oh, what I was asking was: "have I scanmed the other guy in the story?"

@Ersagun (Oh, now I get what you meant. 😅) Misled the other trader? Maybe. Intentionally misled them? Doesn't sound like it.

@4fa @Ersagun I meant I was scammed because it was 51% so I picked no and made it 50% and then it immediately became 51% again sorry to not explain and that was kind of funny to me I don't really think it's a scam it's just a coinflip :3

@Ersagun Now it's 50%. Welcome

@4fa For fun: https://manifold.markets/4fa/dairy-coin-flip#answer-S69tpREggc

Dairy Coin Flip

After market close, I will use FairlyRandom to generate a random integer between 1 and the total number of traders. Any option that applies (currently "even", "odd" and "prime") will resolve to YES. Nothing to do with dairy, just sounded funny. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highly_composite_number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_number https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=874th+digit+of+e