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MANIFOLD
Daily coinflip
115
Ṁ1kṀ24k
resolved Sep 3
Resolved
NO

Yes = heads

No = tails

(Day 200)

Current totals: 100 heads vs 99 tails

Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)

@FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome

1 = heads

2 = tails

Resolution can be expected within 24 hours after closing

Should @FairlyRandom fail to produce an outcome 24 hours after the close date and a final request (here > testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip.

Should @FairlyRandom respond to multiple queries >1 hour after their requests, they will be discarded and the outcome rerolled.

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Longest win streak: @Skyguy (of 7)

Longest loss streak: @

Biggest win: @

Biggest loss: @

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🤖

@Traveel your random number is: 2

Salt: 8supei3grak, round: 4329941 (signature 82daee6d13367a2d4e751bcb7d9abf06265536ecbd37978f801de3b1da52843b8b3f6221caf578ddc2efb47d3116822a18af41b8ce68305d8343c42de4ff56bced52008b9eafb453c08c5371a1dea926edab433b0f1c629062a3605a3d47b395)

🤖

@Traveel you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4329939 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4329941, salt: 8supei3grak.

@FairlyRandom 2

according to kelly if you want a 1% edge by placing a limit order at 51%, you should only place 2% of your networth into the market. if it gets matched you'll have an expected networth after the market resolves that is 0.04% bigger (2% of bankroll times 2% returns)

wait that makes no sense, hmmm

@Bayesian Don’t think that’s quite right… to have a 1% edge on a 50/50 proposition you need a 102% payout on either side. Then your Kelly sizing is 0.5 - 0.5/1.02% = 0.98% of your net worth. Expected net worth increase is 1%*0.98% = 0.0098%

Shucks, that’s almost definitely right and I kinda did random stuff. Thanks for the correction