Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump hold an official bilateral meeting before July 1, 2025. The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by official statements or reputable news sources. Informal encounters or brief exchanges at events do not qualify as official meetings for the purpose of this market.

Background:

On April 26, 2025, during Pope Francis' funeral in Rome, President von der Leyen and President Trump had a brief exchange and agreed to schedule a future meeting. This would be their first official meeting since President Trump's return to office in January 2025. The European Commission has not provided further details regarding the timing or location of this anticipated meeting. (reuters.com)

The context of this potential meeting includes ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union. In March 2025, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on EU automobiles, steel, and aluminum, and 20% tariffs on other EU goods in April. The latter tariffs were temporarily reduced to 10% until July 8, 2025, allowing a 90-day window for negotiations aimed at reaching a comprehensive trade agreement. The EU has proposed eliminating all industrial goods duties, but U.S. interest in this proposal has been limited. (reuters.com)

Given these developments, the scheduling of an official meeting between von der Leyen and Trump before July 1, 2025, remains uncertain.