Resolution criteria

The meeting is scheduled for March 31 to April 2, 2026 in Beijing. This market resolves YES if Trump and Xi meet in person on March 31st, 2026 . The market resolves NO if the summit is cancelled or postponed to a date after March 31st. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the White House or Chinese government confirming whether the meeting occurred as scheduled.

Background

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris for trade talks, paving the way for President Trump's state visit to Beijing starting March 31. Trump's visit to China will be the first for a U.S. president since 2017, coming five months after the two leaders met in Busan and agreed to a one-year truce in their trade war.

Considerations

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the meeting could be delayed for logistical reasons, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said it's "quite possible" the meeting could be delayed. Beijing has yet to confirm the dates and typically announces such plans closer to their scheduled start.