In how many months from the the 1 of January 2025 will the Russo-Ukraine war end.
3
10kṀ13k
2027
10.9 months
expected
98%
Above 0
90%
Above 3
50%
Above 6
41%
Above 9
38%
Above 12
33%
Above 15
26%
Above 18
24%
Above 24

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as to given interval from of months from the the 1 of January 2025 when the English Wikipedia page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the closest equivalent, should the page no longer exist) lists the war as having ended and is not involved in an edit war (i.e no edits regarding the status for 10 days) If I believe there is no edit war even tough the status has been edit within the 10 days, I will consult two free-to-use LLMs that have internet access and are at the top of the Hugging Face arena leaderboard. If the Hugging Face arena leaderboard does not exist, I will search for "Best LLM right now" and select the two recommended as the "best", with due caution. I will make a unanimous decision with the LLMs regarding whether the war has ended. If not, I will have to wait for n! days, where n is the number of questions asked, and n! denotes the factorial of n, to consult the LLMs again.

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